Pep Guardiola's team continue to set unprecedented standards of excellence despite the legal cloud currently hanging over the Etihad Stadium
Manchester City are already on course to lift their record-extending fifth Premier League title come May. The reigning champions have opened the 2024-25 campaign with four wins out of four, scoring 11 goals, nine of which have been scored by their unstoppable Norwegian terminator, Erling Haaland.
Naturally, Haaland steals most of the headlines, but he's just the figurehead in a squad brimming with word-class talent in every position. City would probably still win the league playing a second-string starting XI, such is their strength in depth. And as if that wasn't enough, they also happen to have the best manager in the world sitting in the dugout.
Pep Guardiola has revolutionised the club, and indeed English football as a whole, since taking charge at the Etihad Stadium in 2016. City had already won the title twice before his arrival, but they've taken ownership of it under the Catalan coach. Unfortunately, though, because of that dominance, the Premier League is no longer the greatest competition in world football.
Rival fans are sick of City, and that's why they are praying for the most severe sanctions at the end of football's 'Trial of the Century', which began into the 115 charges that have been laid at City's door on Monday. If City are found guilty of breaching financial rules, there is a chance they will be taken out of the title picture for the foreseeable future.
But on the flip side of that coin, City have vehemently denied any wrongdoing, and may yet emerge from an exhausting saga unscathed. The landscape of the Premier League could be irrevocably changed, or the dynasty on the blue half of Manchester will be free to keep growing. The question is: which outcome is best for the game?
Getty/GOAL'Innocent until guilt is proven'
From the outside looking in, it seems impossible for City to escape punishment, because of the sheer volume of charges against them. The club faces 54 counts of failing to provide accurate financial information between 2009-10 and 2017-2018, while another 14 charges have been issued covering the same period for a failure to provide accurate details for player and manager payments.
City have been charged five times for a failure to comply with UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations from 2013-14 to 2017-18. A further seven relate to breaches of the Premier League's Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) between 2015-16 and 2017-18, and the final 35 charges are for failing to cooperate with Premier League investigations from December 2018 until February 2023.
The potential sanctions are laid out in rule W.51 of the Premier League’s handbook. City could be hit with record-breaking fines or points deductions, and they are also at risk of being expelled from the division. There are plenty of people who have already started to try and delegitimize City's achievements since Sheikh Mansour's ground-breaking takeover at the Etihad in 2008, but as Pep Guardiola has been quick to highlight: "Everybody is innocent until guilt is proven."
AdvertisementGetty Images NewsComplex case
"I am looking forward to the decision," Guardiola added in a press conference last week. "I'm happy it's starting. Justice is there in a modern democracy. It's not more complicated than that. We believe we have not done anything wrong."
City's fate will be decided by a three-person commission of legal experts, with King's Counsel Lord Pannick leading their defence. No expense has been spared as the club bids to prove its innocence, and a full exoneration is the main goal.
It has taken 14 months for the hearing to begin. During that time, Everton were docked eight points for two breaches of PSR rules, and Nottingham Forest had four deducted due to one transgression. In the eyes of many supporters, that means City simply cannot get off scot-free, but their case is far more complex.
"A lot of the alleged offenses are repeat, so that's helped inflate the number," David Ornstein recently told . "A lot of people go 'wow, 115 separate charges'. That's not the case. Because of the time span, it's year after year of the same thing, including non-compliance and alleged inflating of sponsorships artificially with the help of their ownership being disguised."
In 2020, City managed to beat that last allegation, which stemmed from documents published by German outlet via Football Leaks, successfully overturning a two-year Champions League ban in the process. The club can use that victory to validate its current stance, with the Football Leaks information also forming the basis for the 115 charges brought by the Premier League.
GettyRisk of monumental embarrassment
The fact this case has even made it to trial shows how confident City are. According to , retrospective fines may have been the only punishment in the event of a settlement agreement, but the club ultimately decided against making any compromise.
City have even launched legal action against the Premier League in a separate case over associated party transaction rules, further underlining the club's resolve. That will continue to be tested for some time yet. The trial will reportedly last around two months, but a verdict is not expected to be made public until the spring, and City are likely to appeal if found guilty.
Football finance expert Stefan Borson, who served as an advisor to City between 2001 and 2007, doesn't believe there is much risk of that happening, though. "I think they'll clear their name because a case of this nature needs to have a level of cogent proof, which seems to me to be impossible to present to an independent commission," Borson said on in January. "It'll be a very big call for any quasi-court [or] tribunal to suggest that this number of people have been dishonest and have perjured themselves."
It will be a monumental embarrassment for the Premier League if they cannot prove City are guilty, likely leading to a complete boardroom overhaul. Richard Masters' position as chief executive would certainly become untenable, and he has already acknowledged that the case has "created uncertainty and frustration", which will only increase in the coming months.
Getty ImagesLoyalty could go out the window
City are also fighting for their reputation, though. A guilty verdict would forever tarnish the most successful era in the club's history, and the road to recovery could be a daunting one.
According to , City's Premier League rivals do not believe a one-off points deduction will suffice as punishment, even if it were to result in their relegation to the Championship. Points deductions across multiple seasons have been floated as an alternative by one senior figure, to seriously hamper City's chances of competing for trophies.
If that scenario ever comes to pass, there would be a real possibility of City never getting back to the very top. Loyalty goes out the window in times of crisis; players like Haaland and Phil Foden won't want to spend the prime years of their careers languishing in the second tier, and sponsors will also likely jump ship.
Guardiola's contract is up next summer, too, and after City's latest title success, he admitted to being "closer to leaving than staying". Why would the 53-year-old stick around if he is made to look foolish for publicly backing the club for so long?
It has even been suggested that City could be kicked out of all competitions, not just the Premier League. If that happens, how long would it take before the Abu Dhabi United Group, which owns the club, starts exploring sale options? There is so much riding on this trial and the widespread ramifications will be huge for English football no matter who wins.